Target Price Playground
AMD
$245.04
๐ข
AMD IV: 56.6% โ LOW
(-20.3% vs 30d avg of 71.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $265 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $245.04 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $265 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.15 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $265 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$3,711 (16.3%) on $22,789 risked, vs +$1,996 (8.1%) for 100 shares on $24,504. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $265 by Jun 19
+$3,711
+16.3% on $22,789 risked
Max Profit
+$3,711
If the stock โฅ $265 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$22,789
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$227.89
-7.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.3 / 18.97 / -41.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $196 (-20%) | -$3,511 | -$3,335 | -$3,210 | -$3,186 |
| $208 (-15%) | -$2,501 | -$2,251 | -$2,033 | -$1,961 |
| $221 (-10%) | -$1,574 | -$1,247 | -$914 | -$735 |
| $233 (-5%) | -$738 | -$342 | +$110 | +$490 |
| $240 (-2%) | -$284 | +$148 | +$665 | +$1,225 |
| $245 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$452 | +$1,007 | +$1,715 |
| $250 (+2%) | +$268 | +$737 | +$1,324 | +$2,205 |
| $257 (+5%) | +$642 | +$1,130 | +$1,753 | +$2,940 |
| $265 (+8%) โ target | +$997 | +$1,498 | +$2,141 | +$3,711 |
| $270 (+10%) | +$1,189 | +$1,695 | +$2,341 | +$3,711 |
| $282 (+15%) | +$1,651 | +$2,153 | +$2,781 | +$3,711 |
| $294 (+20%) | +$2,032 | +$2,515 | +$3,092 | +$3,711 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.