Target Price Playground
AMD
$245.04
๐ข
AMD IV: 56.6% โ LOW
(-20.3% vs 30d avg of 71.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $235 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $245 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.16 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $235 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.07 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $235 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,122 (123.5%) on $909 risked, vs $-1,004 (-4.1%) for 100 shares on $24,504. Options give 30.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $235. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $235 by Jun 19
+$1,122
+123.5% on $909 risked
Max Profit
+$1,080
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$819
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$261.00
+6.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
87%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.33 / 2.5 / 9.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $196 (-20%) | +$132 | +$181 | +$231 | +$144 |
| $208 (-15%) | +$126 | +$195 | +$295 | +$312 |
| $221 (-10%) | +$101 | +$181 | +$320 | +$598 |
| $235 (-4%) โ target | +$49 | +$128 | +$276 | +$1,122 |
| $240 (-2%) | +$25 | +$100 | +$241 | +$847 |
| $245 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$70 | +$199 | +$609 |
| $250 (+2%) | -$27 | +$36 | +$150 | +$397 |
| $257 (+5%) | -$71 | -$20 | +$66 | +$120 |
| $270 (+10%) | -$149 | -$122 | -$90 | -$236 |
| $282 (+15%) | -$231 | -$228 | -$250 | -$483 |
| $294 (+20%) | -$313 | -$333 | -$397 | -$648 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.