Target Price Playground
AMD
$245.04
๐ข
AMD IV: 56.6% โ LOW
(-20.3% vs 30d avg of 71.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $245 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $25.11 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $275 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$489 (19.5%) on $2,511 risked, vs +$2,996 (12.2%) for 100 shares on $24,504. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $275 by Jun 19
+$489
+19.5% on $2,511 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,511
Premium paid
Break-even
$270.11
+10.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.27 / -19.25 / 41.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $196 (-20%) | -$1,936 | -$2,189 | -$2,421 | -$2,511 |
| $208 (-15%) | -$1,607 | -$1,935 | -$2,286 | -$2,511 |
| $221 (-10%) | -$1,175 | -$1,568 | -$2,034 | -$2,511 |
| $233 (-5%) | -$639 | -$1,078 | -$1,630 | -$2,511 |
| $240 (-2%) | -$267 | -$724 | -$1,307 | -$2,511 |
| $245 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$463 | -$1,057 | -$2,507 |
| $250 (+2%) | +$284 | -$184 | -$781 | -$2,017 |
| $257 (+5%) | +$737 | +$270 | -$319 | -$1,282 |
| $270 (+10%) | +$1,562 | +$1,110 | +$566 | -$57 |
| $275 (+12%) โ target | +$1,955 | +$1,515 | +$999 | +$489 |
| $282 (+15%) | +$2,464 | +$2,043 | +$1,566 | +$1,169 |
| $294 (+20%) | +$3,432 | +$3,049 | +$2,650 | +$2,394 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.