Target Price Playground
AMD
$245.04
๐ข
AMD IV: 56.6% โ LOW
(-20.3% vs 30d avg of 71.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $245.04 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $275 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$2,996 (12.2%) on $24,504 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $275 by Jun 19
+$2,996
+12.2% on $24,504 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$24,504
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$245.04
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $196 (-20%) | -$4,901 | -$4,901 | -$4,901 |
| $208 (-15%) | -$3,676 | -$3,676 | -$3,676 |
| $221 (-10%) | -$2,450 | -$2,450 | -$2,450 |
| $233 (-5%) | -$1,225 | -$1,225 | -$1,225 |
| $240 (-2%) | -$490 | -$490 | -$490 |
| $245 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $250 (+2%) | +$490 | +$490 | +$490 |
| $257 (+5%) | +$1,225 | +$1,225 | +$1,225 |
| $270 (+10%) | +$2,450 | +$2,450 | +$2,450 |
| $275 (+12%) โ target | +$2,996 | +$2,996 | +$2,996 |
| $282 (+15%) | +$3,676 | +$3,676 | +$3,676 |
| $294 (+20%) | +$4,901 | +$4,901 | +$4,901 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.