Target Price Playground
AMD
$245.04
๐ข
AMD IV: 56.6% โ LOW
(-20.3% vs 30d avg of 71.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $245.04 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $235 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.07 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $270 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$689 (2.6%) on $26,311 risked, vs +$2,496 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $24,504. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $270 by Jun 19
+$689
+2.6% on $26,311 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,811
Put floors you at $235
Break-even
$263.11
+7.38% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.78 / -15.8 / 39.72
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $196 (-20%) | -$2,248 | -$2,477 | -$2,713 | -$2,811 |
| $208 (-15%) | -$1,848 | -$2,145 | -$2,500 | -$2,811 |
| $221 (-10%) | -$1,338 | -$1,687 | -$2,137 | -$2,811 |
| $233 (-5%) | -$720 | -$1,099 | -$1,601 | -$2,811 |
| $240 (-2%) | -$300 | -$685 | -$1,194 | -$2,297 |
| $245 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$385 | -$889 | -$1,807 |
| $250 (+2%) | +$315 | -$67 | -$560 | -$1,317 |
| $257 (+5%) | +$814 | +$443 | -$22 | -$582 |
| $270 (+10%) โ target | +$1,745 | +$1,403 | +$1,007 | +$689 |
| $282 (+15%) | +$2,676 | +$2,371 | +$2,050 | +$1,869 |
| $294 (+20%) | +$3,699 | +$3,437 | +$3,191 | +$3,094 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.