Target Price Playground
AMD
$245.04
๐ข
AMD IV: 56.6% โ LOW
(-20.3% vs 30d avg of 71.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $245 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $25.11 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $245 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $23.06 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMD hits $280 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-1,317 (-27.3%) on $4,817 risked, vs +$3,496 (14.3%) for 100 shares on $24,504. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMD is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMD hits $280 by Jun 19
$-1,317
-27.3% on $4,817 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$4,817
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$293.17
+19.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.55 / -35.51 / 82.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMD Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $196 (-20%) | +$1,029 | +$589 | +$190 | +$80 |
| $208 (-15%) | +$462 | -$128 | -$764 | -$1,145 |
| $221 (-10%) | +$99 | -$620 | -$1,486 | -$2,371 |
| $233 (-5%) | -$54 | -$865 | -$1,904 | -$3,596 |
| $240 (-2%) | -$45 | -$892 | -$1,992 | -$4,331 |
| $245 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$861 | -$1,983 | -$4,813 |
| $250 (+2%) | +$77 | -$792 | -$1,920 | -$4,323 |
| $257 (+5%) | +$249 | -$619 | -$1,731 | -$3,588 |
| $270 (+10%) | +$673 | -$164 | -$1,187 | -$2,363 |
| $280 (+14%) โ target | +$1,158 | +$371 | -$538 | -$1,317 |
| $294 (+20%) | +$1,963 | +$1,263 | +$530 | +$88 |
Uses AMD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.