Target Price Playground
AMGN
$351.02
๐ข
AMGN IV: 32.1% โ LOW
(-43.8% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.2 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $380 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.0 ยท ฮ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $395 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,680 (127.3%) on $1,320 risked, vs +$4,398 (12.5%) for 100 shares on $35,102. Options give 10.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $395 by Jun 19
+$1,680
+127.3% on $1,320 risked
Max Profit
+$1,680
If the stock โฅ $380 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,320
Net debit
Break-even
$363.20
+3.47% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
27.87 / -3.13 / 3.82
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $281 (-20%) | -$1,237 | -$1,289 | -$1,318 | -$1,320 |
| $298 (-15%) | -$1,109 | -$1,207 | -$1,298 | -$1,320 |
| $316 (-10%) | -$886 | -$1,018 | -$1,198 | -$1,320 |
| $333 (-5%) | -$564 | -$686 | -$908 | -$1,320 |
| $344 (-2%) | -$333 | -$425 | -$610 | -$1,320 |
| $351 (0%) โ spot | -$170 | -$233 | -$367 | -$1,218 |
| $358 (+2%) | -$3 | -$33 | -$99 | -$516 |
| $369 (+5%) | +$246 | +$270 | +$315 | +$537 |
| $386 (+10%) | +$635 | +$735 | +$927 | +$1,680 |
| $395 (+13%) โ target | +$809 | +$934 | +$1,161 | +$1,680 |
| $404 (+15%) | +$960 | +$1,101 | +$1,335 | +$1,680 |
| $421 (+20%) | +$1,209 | +$1,353 | +$1,546 | +$1,680 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.