Target Price Playground
AMGN
$351.02
๐ข
AMGN IV: 32.1% โ LOW
(-43.8% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $310 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.95 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $325 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.7 ยท ฮ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $310 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,775 (244.8%) on $725 risked, vs $-4,102 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $35,102. Options give 20.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $310. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $310 by Jun 19
+$1,775
+244.8% on $725 risked
Max Profit
+$1,775
If the stock โค $325 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$725
Net debit
Break-even
$342.75
-2.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.9 / -2.08 / 9.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $281 (-20%) | +$1,533 | +$1,633 | +$1,736 | +$1,775 |
| $298 (-15%) | +$1,300 | +$1,420 | +$1,601 | +$1,775 |
| $310 (-12%) โ target | +$1,095 | +$1,201 | +$1,393 | +$1,775 |
| $316 (-10%) | +$978 | +$1,069 | +$1,243 | +$1,775 |
| $333 (-5%) | +$606 | +$627 | +$667 | +$928 |
| $344 (-2%) | +$383 | +$355 | +$294 | -$125 |
| $351 (0%) โ spot | +$240 | +$184 | +$65 | -$725 |
| $358 (+2%) | +$106 | +$26 | -$135 | -$725 |
| $369 (+5%) | -$75 | -$180 | -$370 | -$725 |
| $386 (+10%) | -$317 | -$432 | -$598 | -$725 |
| $404 (+15%) | -$485 | -$583 | -$688 | -$725 |
| $421 (+20%) | -$592 | -$662 | -$716 | -$725 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.