Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $370 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$970 (3.1%) on $-970 credit (max loss $31,530), vs +$1,898 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $35,102. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $281 (-20%) | -$3,509 | -$3,432 | -$3,390 | -$3,448 |
| $298 (-15%) | -$2,169 | -$1,989 | -$1,791 | -$1,693 |
| $316 (-10%) | -$1,093 | -$839 | -$503 | +$62 |
| $333 (-5%) | -$300 | -$28 | +$332 | +$970 |
| $344 (-2%) | +$51 | +$306 | +$623 | +$970 |
| $351 (0%) โ spot | +$238 | +$474 | +$749 | +$970 |
| $358 (+2%) | +$393 | +$606 | +$835 | +$970 |
| $370 (+5%) โ target | +$594 | +$762 | +$916 | +$970 |
| $386 (+10%) | +$767 | +$879 | +$957 | +$970 |
| $404 (+15%) | +$872 | +$936 | +$968 | +$970 |
| $421 (+20%) | +$925 | +$958 | +$970 | +$970 |