Target Price Playground
AMGN
$351.02
๐ข
AMGN IV: 32.1% โ LOW
(-43.8% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $335 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $350 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.42 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $335 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.05 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $335 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,242 (168.5%) on $737 risked, vs $-1,602 (-4.6%) for 100 shares on $35,102. Options give 36.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $335. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $335 by Jun 19
+$1,242
+168.5% on $737 risked
Max Profit
+$1,227
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$736
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$359.69
+2.47% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.54 / 2.44 / 13.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $281 (-20%) | +$650 | +$675 | +$678 | +$648 |
| $298 (-15%) | +$617 | +$673 | +$726 | +$685 |
| $316 (-10%) | +$532 | +$612 | +$732 | +$830 |
| $335 (-5%) โ target | +$374 | +$448 | +$580 | +$1,272 |
| $344 (-2%) | +$280 | +$339 | +$442 | +$728 |
| $351 (0%) โ spot | +$202 | +$244 | +$314 | +$377 |
| $358 (+2%) | +$121 | +$145 | +$175 | +$90 |
| $369 (+5%) | -$2 | -$6 | -$32 | -$232 |
| $386 (+10%) | -$196 | -$239 | -$328 | -$542 |
| $404 (+15%) | -$360 | -$423 | -$526 | -$672 |
| $421 (+20%) | -$488 | -$553 | -$638 | -$718 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.