Target Price Playground
AMGN
$351.02
๐ข
AMGN IV: 32.1% โ LOW
(-43.8% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $310 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.95 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $310 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$2,305 (136.0%) on $1,695 risked, vs $-4,102 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $35,102. Options give 11.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $310. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $310 by Jun 19
+$2,305
+136.0% on $1,695 risked
Max Profit
+$33,305
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,695
Premium paid
Break-even
$333.05
-5.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.59 / -13.82 / 59.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $281 (-20%) | +$5,042 | +$5,065 | +$5,126 | +$5,223 |
| $298 (-15%) | +$3,469 | +$3,409 | +$3,392 | +$3,468 |
| $310 (-12%) โ target | +$2,519 | +$2,391 | +$2,284 | +$2,305 |
| $316 (-10%) | +$2,071 | +$1,908 | +$1,746 | +$1,713 |
| $333 (-5%) | +$906 | +$654 | +$336 | -$42 |
| $344 (-2%) | +$332 | +$49 | -$329 | -$1,095 |
| $351 (0%) โ spot | +$2 | -$290 | -$684 | -$1,695 |
| $358 (+2%) | -$287 | -$580 | -$970 | -$1,695 |
| $369 (+5%) | -$648 | -$928 | -$1,279 | -$1,695 |
| $386 (+10%) | -$1,084 | -$1,312 | -$1,554 | -$1,695 |
| $404 (+15%) | -$1,357 | -$1,519 | -$1,656 | -$1,695 |
| $421 (+20%) | -$1,517 | -$1,621 | -$1,686 | -$1,695 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.