Target Price Playground
AMGN
$351.02
๐ข
AMGN IV: 32.1% โ LOW
(-43.8% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $385 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $351.02 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $335 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.05 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $385 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$2,193 (6.0%) on $36,307 risked, vs +$3,398 (9.7%) for 100 shares on $35,102. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $385 by Jun 19
+$2,193
+6.0% on $36,307 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,807
Put floors you at $335
Break-even
$363.07
+3.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.32 / -13.13 / 57.27
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $281 (-20%) | -$2,869 | -$2,901 | -$2,890 | -$2,807 |
| $298 (-15%) | -$2,564 | -$2,697 | -$2,814 | -$2,807 |
| $316 (-10%) | -$2,029 | -$2,256 | -$2,535 | -$2,807 |
| $333 (-5%) | -$1,222 | -$1,500 | -$1,874 | -$2,807 |
| $344 (-2%) | -$608 | -$888 | -$1,258 | -$1,907 |
| $351 (0%) โ spot | -$149 | -$419 | -$764 | -$1,205 |
| $358 (+2%) | +$348 | +$94 | -$214 | -$503 |
| $369 (+5%) | +$1,155 | +$934 | +$694 | +$550 |
| $385 (+10%) โ target | +$2,533 | +$2,373 | +$2,235 | +$2,193 |
| $404 (+15%) | +$4,227 | +$4,129 | +$4,068 | +$4,060 |
| $421 (+20%) | +$5,897 | +$5,841 | +$5,817 | +$5,815 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.