Target Price Playground
AMGN
$351.02
๐ข
AMGN IV: 32.1% โ LOW
(-43.8% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $405 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.2 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.95 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $405 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$1,785 (48.0%) on $3,715 risked, vs +$5,398 (15.4%) for 100 shares on $35,102. Options give 3.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $405. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $405 by Jun 19
+$1,785
+48.0% on $3,715 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,715
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$387.15
+10.29% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
26%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.97 / -27.5 / 118.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $281 (-20%) | +$3,129 | +$3,080 | +$3,109 | +$3,203 |
| $298 (-15%) | +$1,738 | +$1,524 | +$1,395 | +$1,448 |
| $316 (-10%) | +$697 | +$276 | -$142 | -$307 |
| $333 (-5%) | +$121 | -$475 | -$1,208 | -$2,062 |
| $344 (-2%) | +$27 | -$633 | -$1,484 | -$3,115 |
| $351 (0%) โ spot | +$69 | -$610 | -$1,492 | -$3,613 |
| $358 (+2%) | +$193 | -$487 | -$1,361 | -$2,911 |
| $369 (+5%) | +$523 | -$129 | -$927 | -$1,858 |
| $386 (+10%) | +$1,406 | +$858 | +$277 | -$103 |
| $405 (+15%) โ target | +$2,719 | +$2,309 | +$1,955 | +$1,785 |
| $421 (+20%) | +$4,052 | +$3,749 | +$3,524 | +$3,407 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.