Target Price Playground
AMGN
$351.02
๐ข
AMGN IV: 31.6% โ LOW
(-44.7% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $380 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $351.02 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $380 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.0 ยท ฮ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $380 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$3,598 (10.5%) on $34,402 risked, vs +$2,898 (8.3%) for 100 shares on $35,102. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $380 by Jun 19
+$3,598
+10.5% on $34,402 risked
Max Profit
+$3,598
If the stock โฅ $380 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$34,402
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$344.02
-1.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
72.32 / 10.55 / -55.16
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $281 (-20%) | -$6,343 | -$6,324 | -$6,320 | -$6,320 |
| $298 (-15%) | -$4,643 | -$4,587 | -$4,566 | -$4,565 |
| $316 (-10%) | -$3,022 | -$2,896 | -$2,820 | -$2,810 |
| $333 (-5%) | -$1,534 | -$1,312 | -$1,119 | -$1,055 |
| $344 (-2%) | -$730 | -$445 | -$157 | -$2 |
| $351 (0%) โ spot | -$237 | +$87 | +$442 | +$700 |
| $358 (+2%) | +$218 | +$577 | +$994 | +$1,402 |
| $369 (+5%) | +$830 | +$1,227 | +$1,718 | +$2,455 |
| $380 (+8%) โ target | +$1,393 | +$1,813 | +$2,342 | +$3,598 |
| $386 (+10%) | +$1,654 | +$2,076 | +$2,605 | +$3,598 |
| $404 (+15%) | +$2,252 | +$2,650 | +$3,115 | +$3,598 |
| $421 (+20%) | +$2,661 | +$3,003 | +$3,356 | +$3,598 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.