Target Price Playground
AMGN
$351.02
๐ข
AMGN IV: 31.6% โ LOW
(-44.7% vs 30d avg of 57.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.2 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMGN hits $395 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$2,480 (122.8%) on $2,020 risked, vs +$4,398 (12.5%) for 100 shares on $35,102. Options give 9.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMGN is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMGN hits $395 by Jun 19
+$2,480
+122.8% on $2,020 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,020
Premium paid
Break-even
$370.20
+5.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.56 / -13.68 / 58.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMGN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $281 (-20%) | -$1,913 | -$1,985 | -$2,018 | -$2,020 |
| $298 (-15%) | -$1,731 | -$1,885 | -$1,997 | -$2,020 |
| $316 (-10%) | -$1,374 | -$1,631 | -$1,888 | -$2,020 |
| $333 (-5%) | -$784 | -$1,130 | -$1,543 | -$2,020 |
| $344 (-2%) | -$305 | -$682 | -$1,155 | -$2,020 |
| $351 (0%) โ spot | +$67 | -$320 | -$808 | -$1,918 |
| $358 (+2%) | +$480 | +$93 | -$391 | -$1,216 |
| $369 (+5%) | +$1,171 | +$798 | +$352 | -$163 |
| $386 (+10%) | +$2,491 | +$2,169 | +$1,832 | +$1,592 |
| $395 (+13%) โ target | +$3,224 | +$2,935 | +$2,654 | +$2,480 |
| $404 (+15%) | +$3,973 | +$3,717 | +$3,485 | +$3,347 |
| $421 (+20%) | +$5,568 | +$5,370 | +$5,210 | +$5,102 |
Uses AMGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.