Target Price Playground
AMZN
$238.38
๐ข
AMZN IV: 37.1% โ LOW
(-28.4% vs 30d avg of 51.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.82 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $220 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.05 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMZN hits $210 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,223 (157.4%) on $777 risked, vs $-2,838 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $23,838. Options give 13.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMZN is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMZN hits $210 by Jun 19
+$1,223
+157.4% on $777 risked
Max Profit
+$1,223
If the stock โค $220 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$777
Net debit
Break-even
$232.23
-2.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-20.46 / -1.0 / 7.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMZN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | +$971 | +$1,057 | +$1,165 | +$1,223 |
| $203 (-15%) | +$790 | +$880 | +$1,029 | +$1,223 |
| $210 (-12%) โ target | +$654 | +$731 | +$875 | +$1,223 |
| $215 (-10%) | +$563 | +$626 | +$752 | +$1,223 |
| $226 (-5%) | +$311 | +$326 | +$357 | +$577 |
| $234 (-2%) | +$160 | +$142 | +$104 | -$138 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | +$62 | +$24 | -$56 | -$615 |
| $243 (+2%) | -$31 | -$88 | -$202 | -$777 |
| $250 (+5%) | -$161 | -$239 | -$386 | -$777 |
| $262 (+10%) | -$346 | -$441 | -$595 | -$777 |
| $274 (+15%) | -$488 | -$581 | -$704 | -$777 |
| $286 (+20%) | -$591 | -$670 | -$751 | -$777 |
Uses AMZN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.