Target Price Playground
AMZN
$238.38
๐ข
AMZN IV: 37.1% โ LOW
(-28.4% vs 30d avg of 51.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $265 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.7 ยท ฮ 0.53
SHORT CALL ยท $255 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.35 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMZN hits $265 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$865 (136.2%) on $635 risked, vs +$2,662 (11.2%) for 100 shares on $23,838. Options give 12.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMZN is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMZN hits $265 by Jun 19
+$865
+136.2% on $635 risked
Max Profit
+$865
If the stock โฅ $255 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$635
Net debit
Break-even
$246.35
+3.34% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
16.02 / -1.31 / 3.3
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMZN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$560 | -$600 | -$630 | -$635 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$482 | -$541 | -$609 | -$635 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$366 | -$432 | -$537 | -$635 |
| $226 (-5%) | -$216 | -$270 | -$377 | -$635 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$114 | -$152 | -$234 | -$635 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | -$44 | -$68 | -$124 | -$635 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$27 | +$18 | -$6 | -$320 |
| $250 (+5%) | +$134 | +$148 | +$174 | +$395 |
| $262 (+10%) | +$301 | +$350 | +$445 | +$865 |
| $265 (+11%) โ target | +$338 | +$393 | +$499 | +$865 |
| $274 (+15%) | +$448 | +$518 | +$642 | +$865 |
| $286 (+20%) | +$567 | +$644 | +$761 | +$865 |
Uses AMZN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.