Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMZN hits $250 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$705 (3.3%) on $-705 credit (max loss $21,295), vs +$1,162 (4.9%) for 100 shares on $23,838. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMZN is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMZN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$2,410 | -$2,308 | -$2,220 | -$2,225 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$1,559 | -$1,390 | -$1,190 | -$1,033 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$869 | -$655 | -$373 | +$159 |
| $226 (-5%) | -$341 | -$118 | +$176 | +$705 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$97 | +$116 | +$385 | +$705 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | +$39 | +$241 | +$483 | +$705 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$155 | +$343 | +$554 | +$705 |
| $250 (+5%) โ target | +$292 | +$456 | +$623 | +$705 |
| $262 (+10%) | +$465 | +$584 | +$680 | +$705 |
| $274 (+15%) | +$568 | +$648 | +$698 | +$705 |
| $286 (+20%) | +$630 | +$680 | +$703 | +$705 |