Target Price Playground
AMZN
$238.38
๐ข
AMZN IV: 37.1% โ LOW
(-28.4% vs 30d avg of 51.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $225 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.6 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $225 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.78 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMZN hits $225 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$983 (125.7%) on $782 risked, vs $-1,338 (-5.6%) for 100 shares on $23,838. Options give 22.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMZN is at $225. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMZN hits $225 by Jun 19
+$983
+125.7% on $782 risked
Max Profit
+$958
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$779
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$241.92
+1.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-14.92 / 1.91 / 9.7
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMZN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | +$593 | +$636 | +$668 | +$647 |
| $203 (-15%) | +$531 | +$595 | +$675 | +$688 |
| $215 (-10%) | +$430 | +$502 | +$619 | +$814 |
| $225 (-6%) โ target | +$312 | +$374 | +$485 | +$1,048 |
| $234 (-2%) | +$199 | +$242 | +$320 | +$499 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | +$133 | +$163 | +$214 | +$246 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$65 | +$82 | +$103 | +$29 |
| $250 (+5%) | -$36 | -$41 | -$63 | -$230 |
| $262 (+10%) | -$197 | -$234 | -$309 | -$515 |
| $274 (+15%) | -$340 | -$397 | -$495 | -$665 |
| $286 (+20%) | -$459 | -$524 | -$619 | -$735 |
Uses AMZN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.