Target Price Playground
AMZN
$238.38
๐ข
AMZN IV: 37.1% โ LOW
(-28.4% vs 30d avg of 51.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $265 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.7 ยท ฮ 0.53
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMZN hits $265 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$1,030 (70.1%) on $1,470 risked, vs +$2,662 (11.2%) for 100 shares on $23,838. Options give 6.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMZN is at $265. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMZN hits $265 by Jun 19
+$1,030
+70.1% on $1,470 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,470
Premium paid
Break-even
$254.70
+6.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
53.09 / -12.33 / 40.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMZN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$1,340 | -$1,420 | -$1,465 | -$1,470 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$1,179 | -$1,323 | -$1,438 | -$1,470 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$905 | -$1,119 | -$1,341 | -$1,470 |
| $226 (-5%) | -$492 | -$766 | -$1,094 | -$1,470 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$173 | -$469 | -$840 | -$1,470 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | +$71 | -$234 | -$621 | -$1,470 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$338 | +$29 | -$361 | -$1,155 |
| $250 (+5%) | +$781 | +$476 | +$99 | -$440 |
| $262 (+10%) | +$1,621 | +$1,342 | +$1,027 | +$752 |
| $265 (+11%) โ target | +$1,833 | +$1,563 | +$1,265 | +$1,030 |
| $274 (+15%) | +$2,567 | +$2,329 | +$2,092 | +$1,944 |
| $286 (+20%) | +$3,595 | +$3,401 | +$3,231 | +$3,136 |
Uses AMZN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.