Target Price Playground
AMZN
$238.38
๐ข
AMZN IV: 37.1% โ LOW
(-28.4% vs 30d avg of 51.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.82 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMZN hits $210 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,518 (102.4%) on $1,482 risked, vs $-2,838 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $23,838. Options give 8.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMZN is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMZN hits $210 by Jun 19
+$1,518
+102.4% on $1,482 risked
Max Profit
+$22,518
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,482
Premium paid
Break-even
$225.18
-5.54% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-47.53 / -10.01 / 40.3
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMZN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | +$3,381 | +$3,366 | +$3,385 | +$3,448 |
| $203 (-15%) | +$2,349 | +$2,271 | +$2,220 | +$2,256 |
| $210 (-12%) โ target | +$1,766 | +$1,643 | +$1,529 | +$1,518 |
| $215 (-10%) | +$1,431 | +$1,282 | +$1,125 | +$1,064 |
| $226 (-5%) | +$652 | +$444 | +$180 | -$128 |
| $234 (-2%) | +$257 | +$25 | -$281 | -$843 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | +$23 | -$217 | -$539 | -$1,320 |
| $243 (+2%) | -$186 | -$430 | -$756 | -$1,482 |
| $250 (+5%) | -$459 | -$699 | -$1,011 | -$1,482 |
| $262 (+10%) | -$811 | -$1,025 | -$1,275 | -$1,482 |
| $274 (+15%) | -$1,056 | -$1,230 | -$1,402 | -$1,482 |
| $286 (+20%) | -$1,220 | -$1,350 | -$1,455 | -$1,482 |
Uses AMZN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.