Target Price Playground
AMZN
$238.38
๐ข
AMZN IV: 37.1% โ LOW
(-28.4% vs 30d avg of 51.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $260 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $238.38 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $225 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.78 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMZN hits $260 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,284 (5.2%) on $24,716 risked, vs +$2,162 (9.1%) for 100 shares on $23,838. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMZN is at $260. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMZN hits $260 by Jun 19
+$1,284
+5.2% on $24,716 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,216
Put floors you at $225
Break-even
$247.16
+3.68% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.31 / -9.74 / 38.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMZN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$2,115 | -$2,193 | -$2,247 | -$2,216 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$1,828 | -$1,977 | -$2,138 | -$2,216 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$1,390 | -$1,594 | -$1,857 | -$2,216 |
| $226 (-5%) | -$792 | -$1,020 | -$1,326 | -$2,070 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$359 | -$585 | -$881 | -$1,355 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | -$41 | -$260 | -$537 | -$878 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$298 | +$89 | -$162 | -$401 |
| $250 (+5%) | +$841 | +$654 | +$448 | +$314 |
| $260 (+9%) โ target | +$1,635 | +$1,484 | +$1,341 | +$1,284 |
| $274 (+15%) | +$2,885 | +$2,784 | +$2,712 | +$2,698 |
| $286 (+20%) | +$3,996 | +$3,930 | +$3,894 | +$3,890 |
Uses AMZN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.