Target Price Playground
AMZN
$238.38
๐ข
AMZN IV: 37.1% โ LOW
(-28.4% vs 30d avg of 51.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $275 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.7 ยท ฮ 0.53
LONG PUT ยท $240 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.82 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMZN hits $275 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$548 (18.6%) on $2,952 risked, vs +$3,662 (15.4%) for 100 shares on $23,838. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMZN is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMZN hits $275 by Jun 19
+$548
+18.6% on $2,952 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,952
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$210.48
-11.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
5.57 / -22.34 / 80.62
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMZN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | +$2,041 | +$1,946 | +$1,920 | +$1,978 |
| $203 (-15%) | +$1,170 | +$948 | +$782 | +$786 |
| $215 (-10%) | +$526 | +$162 | -$216 | -$406 |
| $226 (-5%) | +$160 | -$322 | -$913 | -$1,598 |
| $234 (-2%) | +$84 | -$444 | -$1,121 | -$2,313 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | +$94 | -$451 | -$1,160 | -$2,790 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$152 | -$401 | -$1,118 | -$2,637 |
| $250 (+5%) | +$322 | -$223 | -$912 | -$1,922 |
| $262 (+10%) | +$810 | +$317 | -$249 | -$730 |
| $275 (+15%) โ target | +$1,568 | +$1,163 | +$764 | +$548 |
| $286 (+20%) | +$2,375 | +$2,051 | +$1,777 | +$1,654 |
Uses AMZN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.