Target Price Playground
AMZN
$238.38
๐ข
AMZN IV: 37.1% โ LOW
(-28.4% vs 30d avg of 51.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $255 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $238.38 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $255 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.35 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AMZN hits $255 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,497 (10.9%) on $23,003 risked, vs +$1,662 (7.0%) for 100 shares on $23,838. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AMZN is at $255. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AMZN hits $255 by Jun 19
+$2,497
+10.9% on $23,003 risked
Max Profit
+$2,497
If the stock โฅ $255 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$23,003
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$230.03
-3.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.93 / 11.02 / -37.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AMZN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $191 (-20%) | -$3,989 | -$3,948 | -$3,934 | -$3,933 |
| $203 (-15%) | -$2,879 | -$2,795 | -$2,747 | -$2,741 |
| $215 (-10%) | -$1,845 | -$1,697 | -$1,580 | -$1,549 |
| $226 (-5%) | -$916 | -$697 | -$475 | -$357 |
| $234 (-2%) | -$419 | -$160 | +$129 | +$358 |
| $238 (0%) โ spot | -$115 | +$166 | +$497 | +$835 |
| $243 (+2%) | +$166 | +$466 | +$832 | +$1,312 |
| $250 (+5%) | +$545 | +$864 | +$1,267 | +$2,027 |
| $255 (+7%) โ target | +$766 | +$1,092 | +$1,506 | +$2,497 |
| $262 (+10%) | +$1,065 | +$1,392 | +$1,802 | +$2,497 |
| $274 (+15%) | +$1,456 | +$1,765 | +$2,127 | +$2,497 |
| $286 (+20%) | +$1,739 | +$2,011 | +$2,297 | +$2,497 |
Uses AMZN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.