Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ANET hits $155 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$840 (6.6%) on $-840 credit (max loss $12,660), vs +$765 (5.2%) for 100 shares on $14,735. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ANET is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ANET Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $118 (-20%) | -$1,305 | -$1,157 | -$988 | -$872 |
| $125 (-15%) | -$851 | -$669 | -$437 | -$135 |
| $133 (-10%) | -$470 | -$267 | +$3 | +$602 |
| $140 (-5%) | -$158 | +$51 | +$325 | +$840 |
| $144 (-2%) | -$1 | +$204 | +$467 | +$840 |
| $147 (0%) โ spot | +$92 | +$292 | +$543 | +$840 |
| $150 (+2%) | +$176 | +$370 | +$605 | +$840 |
| $155 (+5%) โ target | +$293 | +$475 | +$682 | +$840 |
| $162 (+10%) | +$436 | +$595 | +$757 | +$840 |
| $169 (+15%) | +$548 | +$681 | +$799 | +$840 |
| $177 (+20%) | +$632 | +$739 | +$821 | +$840 |