Target Price Playground
APH
$140.75
๐ข
APH IV: 49.1% โ LOW
(-22.4% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.1 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.3 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APH hits $125 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$620 (163.2%) on $380 risked, vs $-1,575 (-11.2%) for 100 shares on $14,075. Options give 14.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APH is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APH hits $125 by Jun 19
+$620
+163.2% on $380 risked
Max Profit
+$620
If the stock โค $130 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$380
Net debit
Break-even
$136.20
-3.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.62 / -0.54 / 1.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $113 (-20%) | +$432 | +$476 | +$546 | +$620 |
| $120 (-15%) | +$349 | +$386 | +$456 | +$620 |
| $125 (-11%) โ target | +$279 | +$304 | +$358 | +$620 |
| $127 (-10%) | +$257 | +$277 | +$323 | +$620 |
| $134 (-5%) | +$160 | +$160 | +$164 | +$249 |
| $138 (-2%) | +$103 | +$90 | +$66 | -$174 |
| $141 (0%) โ spot | +$66 | +$45 | +$4 | -$380 |
| $144 (+2%) | +$30 | +$2 | -$53 | -$380 |
| $148 (+5%) | -$22 | -$59 | -$131 | -$380 |
| $155 (+10%) | -$99 | -$146 | -$232 | -$380 |
| $162 (+15%) | -$164 | -$216 | -$298 | -$380 |
| $169 (+20%) | -$217 | -$269 | -$338 | -$380 |
Uses APH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.