Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APH hits $150 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$730 (5.9%) on $-730 credit (max loss $12,270), vs +$925 (6.6%) for 100 shares on $14,075. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APH is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $113 (-20%) | -$1,312 | -$1,196 | -$1,072 | -$1,010 |
| $120 (-15%) | -$855 | -$703 | -$515 | -$306 |
| $127 (-10%) | -$474 | -$299 | -$68 | +$397 |
| $134 (-5%) | -$164 | +$18 | +$257 | +$730 |
| $138 (-2%) | -$10 | +$168 | +$398 | +$730 |
| $141 (0%) โ spot | +$79 | +$253 | +$471 | +$730 |
| $144 (+2%) | +$160 | +$328 | +$531 | +$730 |
| $148 (+5%) | +$265 | +$421 | +$598 | +$730 |
| $150 (+7%) โ target | +$313 | +$462 | +$625 | +$730 |
| $155 (+10%) | +$404 | +$536 | +$668 | +$730 |
| $162 (+15%) | +$504 | +$611 | +$702 | +$730 |
| $169 (+20%) | +$576 | +$659 | +$719 | +$730 |