Target Price Playground
APH
$140.75
๐ข
APH IV: 49.1% โ LOW
(-22.4% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $140 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.55 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $135 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.0 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APH hits $135 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns $-717 (-40.9%) on $1,755 risked, vs $-575 (-4.1%) for 100 shares on $14,075. Options give 10.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APH is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APH hits $135 by Jun 19
$-717
-40.9% on $1,755 risked
Max Profit
+$-742
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,728
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$
None% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
85%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.39 / 1.82 / 5.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $113 (-20%) | -$1,242 | -$1,222 | -$1,209 | -$1,258 |
| $120 (-15%) | -$1,243 | -$1,211 | -$1,168 | -$1,184 |
| $127 (-10%) | -$1,255 | -$1,216 | -$1,149 | -$1,041 |
| $135 (-4%) โ target | -$1,286 | -$1,246 | -$1,172 | -$752 |
| $138 (-2%) | -$1,300 | -$1,263 | -$1,193 | -$910 |
| $141 (0%) โ spot | -$1,315 | -$1,281 | -$1,219 | -$1,044 |
| $144 (+2%) | -$1,332 | -$1,302 | -$1,249 | -$1,162 |
| $148 (+5%) | -$1,358 | -$1,336 | -$1,301 | -$1,310 |
| $155 (+10%) | -$1,406 | -$1,398 | -$1,395 | -$1,491 |
| $162 (+15%) | -$1,454 | -$1,460 | -$1,485 | -$1,606 |
| $169 (+20%) | -$1,502 | -$1,519 | -$1,562 | -$1,675 |
Uses APH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.