Target Price Playground
APH
$140.75
๐ข
APH IV: 49.2% โ LOW
(-22.2% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.15 ยท ฮ 0.58
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APH hits $160 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$485 (32.0%) on $1,515 risked, vs +$1,925 (13.7%) for 100 shares on $14,075. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APH is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APH hits $160 by Jun 19
+$485
+32.0% on $1,515 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,515
Premium paid
Break-even
$155.15
+10.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.59 / -10.25 / 23.58
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $113 (-20%) | -$1,285 | -$1,396 | -$1,488 | -$1,515 |
| $120 (-15%) | -$1,121 | -$1,274 | -$1,430 | -$1,515 |
| $127 (-10%) | -$893 | -$1,084 | -$1,307 | -$1,515 |
| $134 (-5%) | -$595 | -$814 | -$1,088 | -$1,515 |
| $138 (-2%) | -$383 | -$611 | -$903 | -$1,515 |
| $141 (0%) โ spot | -$229 | -$461 | -$757 | -$1,440 |
| $144 (+2%) | -$64 | -$297 | -$593 | -$1,159 |
| $148 (+5%) | +$202 | -$29 | -$316 | -$736 |
| $155 (+10%) | +$691 | +$473 | +$218 | -$32 |
| $160 (+14%) โ target | +$1,082 | +$879 | +$655 | +$485 |
| $162 (+15%) | +$1,228 | +$1,031 | +$820 | +$671 |
| $169 (+20%) | +$1,807 | +$1,635 | +$1,468 | +$1,375 |
Uses APH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.