Target Price Playground
APH
$140.75
๐ข
APH IV: 49.2% โ LOW
(-22.2% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $140.75 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APH hits $160 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$1,925 (13.7%) on $14,075 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APH hits $160 by Jun 19
+$1,925
+13.7% on $14,075 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$14,075
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$140.75
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APH Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $113 (-20%) | -$2,815 | -$2,815 | -$2,815 |
| $120 (-15%) | -$2,111 | -$2,111 | -$2,111 |
| $127 (-10%) | -$1,408 | -$1,408 | -$1,408 |
| $134 (-5%) | -$704 | -$704 | -$704 |
| $138 (-2%) | -$281 | -$281 | -$281 |
| $141 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $144 (+2%) | +$281 | +$281 | +$281 |
| $148 (+5%) | +$704 | +$704 | +$704 |
| $155 (+10%) | +$1,408 | +$1,408 | +$1,408 |
| $160 (+14%) โ target | +$1,925 | +$1,925 | +$1,925 |
| $162 (+15%) | +$2,111 | +$2,111 | +$2,111 |
| $169 (+20%) | +$2,815 | +$2,815 | +$2,815 |
Uses APH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.