Target Price Playground
APH
$140.75
๐ข
APH IV: 49.2% โ LOW
(-22.2% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $140.75 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $135 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.0 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APH hits $155 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$525 (3.5%) on $14,975 risked, vs +$1,425 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $14,075. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APH is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APH hits $155 by Jun 19
+$525
+3.5% on $14,975 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,475
Put floors you at $135
Break-even
$149.75
+6.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.34 / -9.12 / 23.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $113 (-20%) | -$1,278 | -$1,373 | -$1,460 | -$1,475 |
| $120 (-15%) | -$1,075 | -$1,211 | -$1,366 | -$1,475 |
| $127 (-10%) | -$802 | -$969 | -$1,183 | -$1,475 |
| $134 (-5%) | -$457 | -$642 | -$888 | -$1,475 |
| $138 (-2%) | -$217 | -$405 | -$654 | -$1,181 |
| $141 (0%) โ spot | -$44 | -$231 | -$477 | -$900 |
| $144 (+2%) | +$139 | -$46 | -$283 | -$619 |
| $148 (+5%) | +$432 | +$255 | +$37 | -$196 |
| $155 (+10%) โ target | +$974 | +$817 | +$642 | +$525 |
| $162 (+15%) | +$1,532 | +$1,399 | +$1,268 | +$1,211 |
| $169 (+20%) | +$2,140 | +$2,032 | +$1,941 | +$1,915 |
Uses APH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.