Target Price Playground
APH
$140.75
๐ข
APH IV: 49.2% โ LOW
(-22.2% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.15 ยท ฮ 0.58
LONG PUT ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.1 ยท ฮ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APH hits $160 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-625 (-23.8%) on $2,625 risked, vs +$1,925 (13.7%) for 100 shares on $14,075. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APH is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APH hits $160 by Jun 19
$-625
-23.8% on $2,625 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,625
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$166.25
+18.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
14.99 / -19.69 / 47.17
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $113 (-20%) | +$459 | +$276 | +$130 | +$115 |
| $120 (-15%) | +$84 | -$185 | -$459 | -$589 |
| $127 (-10%) | -$163 | -$508 | -$916 | -$1,292 |
| $134 (-5%) | -$271 | -$671 | -$1,181 | -$1,996 |
| $138 (-2%) | -$270 | -$689 | -$1,234 | -$2,419 |
| $141 (0%) โ spot | -$243 | -$669 | -$1,223 | -$2,550 |
| $144 (+2%) | -$194 | -$623 | -$1,177 | -$2,269 |
| $148 (+5%) | -$85 | -$508 | -$1,045 | -$1,846 |
| $155 (+10%) | +$189 | -$209 | -$681 | -$1,142 |
| $160 (+14%) โ target | +$454 | +$85 | -$324 | -$625 |
| $162 (+15%) | +$561 | +$204 | -$181 | -$439 |
| $169 (+20%) | +$1,014 | +$707 | +$411 | +$265 |
Uses APH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.