Target Price Playground
APH
$140.75
๐ข
APH IV: 49.1% โ LOW
(-22.4% vs 30d avg of 63.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $140.75 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $150 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.3 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APH hits $150 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,855 (14.1%) on $13,145 risked, vs +$925 (6.6%) for 100 shares on $14,075. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APH is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APH hits $150 by Jun 19
+$1,855
+14.1% on $13,145 risked
Max Profit
+$1,855
If the stock โฅ $150 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$13,145
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$131.45
-6.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.32 / 9.53 / -24.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $113 (-20%) | -$2,009 | -$1,937 | -$1,891 | -$1,885 |
| $120 (-15%) | -$1,409 | -$1,296 | -$1,206 | -$1,181 |
| $127 (-10%) | -$859 | -$704 | -$552 | -$478 |
| $134 (-5%) | -$368 | -$173 | +$47 | +$226 |
| $138 (-2%) | -$104 | +$111 | +$369 | +$649 |
| $141 (0%) โ spot | +$59 | +$285 | +$563 | +$930 |
| $144 (+2%) | +$211 | +$446 | +$742 | +$1,211 |
| $148 (+5%) | +$421 | +$666 | +$978 | +$1,634 |
| $150 (+7%) โ target | +$522 | +$770 | +$1,086 | +$1,855 |
| $155 (+10%) | +$721 | +$971 | +$1,287 | +$1,855 |
| $162 (+15%) | +$964 | +$1,206 | +$1,501 | +$1,855 |
| $169 (+20%) | +$1,157 | +$1,382 | +$1,638 | +$1,855 |
Uses APH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.