Target Price Playground
APP
$391.38
๐ข
APP IV: 73.2% โ LOW
(-19.7% vs 30d avg of 91.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $345 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $390 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $55.2 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $360 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.71 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $345 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,451 (93.7%) on $1,549 risked, vs $-4,638 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $39,138. Options give 7.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $345. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $345 by Jun 19
+$1,451
+93.7% on $1,549 risked
Max Profit
+$1,451
If the stock โค $360 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,549
Net debit
Break-even
$374.51
-4.31% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-8.91 / -1.72 / 2.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $313 (-20%) | +$700 | +$795 | +$988 | +$1,451 |
| $333 (-15%) | +$514 | +$578 | +$726 | +$1,451 |
| $345 (-12%) โ target | +$393 | +$433 | +$537 | +$1,451 |
| $352 (-10%) | +$321 | +$346 | +$419 | +$1,451 |
| $372 (-5%) | +$128 | +$111 | +$92 | +$270 |
| $384 (-2%) | +$15 | -$29 | -$103 | -$904 |
| $391 (0%) โ spot | -$60 | -$120 | -$229 | -$1,549 |
| $399 (+2%) | -$133 | -$208 | -$351 | -$1,549 |
| $411 (+5%) | -$239 | -$336 | -$524 | -$1,549 |
| $431 (+10%) | -$406 | -$535 | -$778 | -$1,549 |
| $450 (+15%) | -$559 | -$711 | -$986 | -$1,549 |
| $470 (+20%) | -$697 | -$865 | -$1,149 | -$1,549 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.