Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $410 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$3,971 (12.4%) on $-3,971 credit (max loss $32,029), vs +$1,862 (4.8%) for 100 shares on $39,138. Options give 2.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $410. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $313 (-20%) | -$2,854 | -$2,234 | -$1,479 | -$719 |
| $333 (-15%) | -$1,757 | -$1,055 | -$148 | +$1,238 |
| $352 (-10%) | -$803 | -$47 | +$952 | +$3,195 |
| $372 (-5%) | +$18 | +$797 | +$1,823 | +$3,971 |
| $384 (-2%) | +$451 | +$1,230 | +$2,243 | +$3,971 |
| $391 (0%) โ spot | +$716 | +$1,491 | +$2,485 | +$3,971 |
| $399 (+2%) | +$964 | +$1,730 | +$2,699 | +$3,971 |
| $410 (+5%) โ target | +$1,279 | +$2,028 | +$2,950 | +$3,971 |
| $431 (+10%) | +$1,797 | +$2,500 | +$3,313 | +$3,971 |
| $450 (+15%) | +$2,205 | +$2,852 | +$3,548 | +$3,971 |
| $470 (+20%) | +$2,541 | +$3,126 | +$3,704 | +$3,971 |