Target Price Playground
APP
$391.38
๐ข
APP IV: 72.8% โ LOW
(-20.1% vs 30d avg of 91.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $425 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $391.38 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $425 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $38.22 ยท ฮ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $425 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$7,184 (20.3%) on $35,316 risked, vs +$3,362 (8.6%) for 100 shares on $39,138. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $425. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $425 by Jun 19
+$7,184
+20.3% on $35,316 risked
Max Profit
+$7,184
If the stock โฅ $425 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$35,316
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$353.16
-9.76% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
52.78 / 39.18 / -66.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $313 (-20%) | -$5,118 | -$4,612 | -$4,162 | -$4,006 |
| $333 (-15%) | -$3,655 | -$3,021 | -$2,380 | -$2,049 |
| $352 (-10%) | -$2,312 | -$1,559 | -$718 | -$92 |
| $372 (-5%) | -$1,094 | -$237 | +$789 | +$1,865 |
| $384 (-2%) | -$423 | +$487 | +$1,608 | +$3,039 |
| $391 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$940 | +$2,116 | +$3,822 |
| $399 (+2%) | +$404 | +$1,369 | +$2,592 | +$4,605 |
| $411 (+5%) | +$974 | +$1,970 | +$3,247 | +$5,779 |
| $425 (+9%) โ target | +$1,601 | +$2,622 | +$3,938 | +$7,184 |
| $431 (+10%) | +$1,832 | +$2,860 | +$4,183 | +$7,184 |
| $450 (+15%) | +$2,583 | +$3,618 | +$4,934 | +$7,184 |
| $470 (+20%) | +$3,235 | +$4,255 | +$5,519 | +$7,184 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.