Target Price Playground
APP
$391.38
๐ข
APP IV: 73.2% โ LOW
(-19.7% vs 30d avg of 91.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $440 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $390 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $54.06 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $440 by Jun 19: the long call returns $-406 (-7.5%) on $5,406 risked, vs +$4,862 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $39,138. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $440. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $440 by Jun 19
$-406
-7.5% on $5,406 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$5,406
Premium paid
Break-even
$444.06
+13.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.18 / -40.83 / 65.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $313 (-20%) | -$3,701 | -$4,331 | -$4,999 | -$5,406 |
| $333 (-15%) | -$3,027 | -$3,770 | -$4,634 | -$5,406 |
| $352 (-10%) | -$2,217 | -$3,053 | -$4,084 | -$5,406 |
| $372 (-5%) | -$1,274 | -$2,175 | -$3,325 | -$5,406 |
| $384 (-2%) | -$646 | -$1,574 | -$2,767 | -$5,406 |
| $391 (0%) โ spot | -$203 | -$1,142 | -$2,352 | -$5,268 |
| $399 (+2%) | +$259 | -$688 | -$1,904 | -$4,485 |
| $411 (+5%) | +$986 | +$36 | -$1,174 | -$3,311 |
| $431 (+10%) | +$2,284 | +$1,347 | +$186 | -$1,354 |
| $440 (+12%) โ target | +$2,949 | +$2,025 | +$902 | -$406 |
| $450 (+15%) | +$3,680 | +$2,775 | +$1,700 | +$603 |
| $470 (+20%) | +$5,163 | +$4,305 | +$3,337 | +$2,560 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.