Target Price Playground
APP
$391.38
๐ข
APP IV: 72.8% โ LOW
(-20.1% vs 30d avg of 91.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $345 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $390 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $55.2 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $345 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-1,020 (-18.5%) on $5,520 risked, vs $-4,638 (-11.9%) for 100 shares on $39,138. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $345. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $345 by Jun 19
$-1,020
-18.5% on $5,520 risked
Max Profit
+$33,480
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$5,520
Premium paid
Break-even
$334.80
-14.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.11 / -37.09 / 65.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $313 (-20%) | +$3,555 | +$3,029 | +$2,466 | +$2,170 |
| $333 (-15%) | +$2,271 | +$1,633 | +$875 | +$213 |
| $345 (-12%) โ target | +$1,533 | +$833 | -$35 | -$1,020 |
| $352 (-10%) | +$1,124 | +$394 | -$532 | -$1,744 |
| $372 (-5%) | +$110 | -$686 | -$1,731 | -$3,701 |
| $384 (-2%) | -$436 | -$1,259 | -$2,346 | -$4,875 |
| $391 (0%) โ spot | -$776 | -$1,610 | -$2,715 | -$5,520 |
| $399 (+2%) | -$1,097 | -$1,938 | -$3,050 | -$5,520 |
| $411 (+5%) | -$1,544 | -$2,389 | -$3,494 | -$5,520 |
| $431 (+10%) | -$2,202 | -$3,034 | -$4,091 | -$5,520 |
| $450 (+15%) | -$2,763 | -$3,563 | -$4,534 | -$5,520 |
| $470 (+20%) | -$3,238 | -$3,991 | -$4,853 | -$5,520 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.