Target Price Playground
APP
$391.38
๐ข
APP IV: 72.8% โ LOW
(-20.1% vs 30d avg of 91.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $430 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $391.38 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $43.86 ยท ฮ -0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $430 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-524 (-1.2%) on $43,524 risked, vs +$3,862 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $39,138. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $430. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $430 by Jun 19
$-524
-1.2% on $43,524 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$6,524
Put floors you at $370
Break-even
$435.24
+11.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
61.84 / -36.04 / 63.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $313 (-20%) | -$4,665 | -$5,258 | -$5,953 | -$6,524 |
| $333 (-15%) | -$3,870 | -$4,557 | -$5,424 | -$6,524 |
| $352 (-10%) | -$2,934 | -$3,688 | -$4,677 | -$6,524 |
| $372 (-5%) | -$1,864 | -$2,655 | -$3,704 | -$6,343 |
| $384 (-2%) | -$1,161 | -$1,961 | -$3,016 | -$5,169 |
| $391 (0%) โ spot | -$668 | -$1,469 | -$2,516 | -$4,386 |
| $399 (+2%) | -$157 | -$955 | -$1,986 | -$3,603 |
| $411 (+5%) | +$641 | -$145 | -$1,138 | -$2,429 |
| $430 (+10%) โ target | +$2,013 | +$1,261 | +$356 | -$524 |
| $450 (+15%) | +$3,552 | +$2,850 | +$2,059 | +$1,485 |
| $470 (+20%) | +$5,128 | +$4,485 | +$3,813 | +$3,442 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.