Target Price Playground
APPF
$143.34
๐ข
APPF IV: 50.3% โ LOW
(-29.6% vs 30d avg of 71.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $145 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.53 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.84 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPF hits $125 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$830 (124.0%) on $670 risked, vs $-1,834 (-12.8%) for 100 shares on $14,334. Options give 9.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APPF is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APPF hits $125 by Jun 19
+$830
+124.0% on $670 risked
Max Profit
+$830
If the stock โค $130 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$670
Net debit
Break-even
$138.30
-3.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.89 / -1.06 / 3.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPF Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | +$545 | +$609 | +$713 | +$831 |
| $122 (-15%) | +$422 | +$475 | +$577 | +$831 |
| $125 (-13%) โ target | +$362 | +$406 | +$496 | +$831 |
| $129 (-10%) | +$284 | +$314 | +$379 | +$831 |
| $136 (-5%) | +$141 | +$141 | +$145 | +$214 |
| $140 (-2%) | +$56 | +$37 | +$2 | -$216 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$29 | -$89 | -$503 |
| $146 (+2%) | -$53 | -$93 | -$174 | -$669 |
| $151 (+5%) | -$128 | -$183 | -$288 | -$669 |
| $158 (+10%) | -$243 | -$313 | -$438 | -$669 |
| $165 (+15%) | -$340 | -$417 | -$539 | -$669 |
| $172 (+20%) | -$420 | -$496 | -$601 | -$669 |
Uses APPF's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.