Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPF hits $150 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$584 (4.7%) on $-584 credit (max loss $12,416), vs +$666 (4.6%) for 100 shares on $14,334. Options give 1.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APPF is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPF Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | -$1,323 | -$1,194 | -$1,047 | -$949 |
| $122 (-15%) | -$881 | -$719 | -$512 | -$232 |
| $129 (-10%) | -$517 | -$337 | -$97 | +$485 |
| $136 (-5%) | -$226 | -$44 | +$193 | +$584 |
| $140 (-2%) | -$83 | +$93 | +$314 | +$584 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$170 | +$377 | +$584 |
| $146 (+2%) | +$75 | +$237 | +$427 | +$584 |
| $150 (+5%) โ target | +$160 | +$311 | +$477 | +$584 |
| $158 (+10%) | +$296 | +$420 | +$537 | +$584 |
| $165 (+15%) | +$387 | +$485 | +$564 | +$584 |
| $172 (+20%) | +$451 | +$526 | +$576 | +$584 |