Target Price Playground
APPF
$143.34
๐ข
APPF IV: 48.2% โ LOW
(-32.5% vs 30d avg of 71.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $143.34 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $155 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.2 ยท ฮ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPF hits $155 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,986 (14.7%) on $13,514 risked, vs +$1,166 (8.1%) for 100 shares on $14,334. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APPF is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APPF hits $155 by Jun 19
+$1,986
+14.7% on $13,514 risked
Max Profit
+$1,986
If the stock โฅ $155 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$13,514
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$135.14
-5.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
58.61 / 9.6 / -23.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPF Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | -$2,160 | -$2,092 | -$2,052 | -$2,047 |
| $122 (-15%) | -$1,539 | -$1,432 | -$1,350 | -$1,330 |
| $129 (-10%) | -$967 | -$816 | -$674 | -$613 |
| $136 (-5%) | -$452 | -$259 | -$48 | +$103 |
| $140 (-2%) | -$173 | +$42 | +$293 | +$533 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$228 | +$503 | +$820 |
| $146 (+2%) | +$163 | +$402 | +$697 | +$1,107 |
| $151 (+5%) | +$388 | +$639 | +$956 | +$1,537 |
| $155 (+8%) โ target | +$599 | +$857 | +$1,186 | +$1,986 |
| $158 (+10%) | +$713 | +$972 | +$1,303 | +$1,986 |
| $165 (+15%) | +$979 | +$1,235 | +$1,551 | +$1,986 |
| $172 (+20%) | +$1,192 | +$1,434 | +$1,716 | +$1,986 |
Uses APPF's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.