Target Price Playground
APPF
$143.34
๐ข
APPF IV: 50.3% โ LOW
(-29.6% vs 30d avg of 71.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $145 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.95 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $135 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.74 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPF hits $135 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,219 (1006.6%) on $121 risked, vs $-834 (-5.8%) for 100 shares on $14,334. Options give 173.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APPF is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APPF hits $135 by Jun 19
+$1,219
+1006.6% on $121 risked
Max Profit
+$1,211
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$91
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$170.88
+19.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.83 / 0.67 / 6.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPF Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | +$801 | +$839 | +$881 | +$865 |
| $122 (-15%) | +$763 | +$811 | +$882 | +$927 |
| $129 (-10%) | +$710 | +$759 | +$845 | +$1,051 |
| $135 (-6%) โ target | +$654 | +$699 | +$781 | +$1,219 |
| $140 (-2%) | +$597 | +$632 | +$696 | +$887 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | +$565 | +$593 | +$645 | +$736 |
| $146 (+2%) | +$532 | +$553 | +$590 | +$602 |
| $151 (+5%) | +$482 | +$492 | +$504 | +$431 |
| $158 (+10%) | +$398 | +$389 | +$363 | +$217 |
| $165 (+15%) | +$317 | +$292 | +$237 | +$76 |
| $172 (+20%) | +$243 | +$205 | +$133 | -$11 |
Uses APPF's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.