Target Price Playground
APPF
$143.34
๐ข
APPF IV: 48.2% โ LOW
(-32.5% vs 30d avg of 71.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $143.34 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $135 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.74 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPF hits $160 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$892 (5.9%) on $15,108 risked, vs +$1,666 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $14,334. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APPF is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APPF hits $160 by Jun 19
+$892
+5.9% on $15,108 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,608
Put floors you at $135
Break-even
$151.08
+5.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.44 / -7.7 / 22.39
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPF Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | -$1,352 | -$1,461 | -$1,571 | -$1,608 |
| $122 (-15%) | -$1,123 | -$1,271 | -$1,449 | -$1,608 |
| $129 (-10%) | -$820 | -$997 | -$1,227 | -$1,608 |
| $136 (-5%) | -$445 | -$634 | -$885 | -$1,491 |
| $140 (-2%) | -$186 | -$375 | -$623 | -$1,061 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$187 | -$427 | -$774 |
| $146 (+2%) | +$195 | +$13 | -$215 | -$487 |
| $151 (+5%) | +$505 | +$333 | +$128 | -$57 |
| $158 (+10%) | +$1,061 | +$911 | +$751 | +$659 |
| $160 (+12%) โ target | +$1,251 | +$1,109 | +$964 | +$892 |
| $165 (+15%) | +$1,659 | +$1,534 | +$1,419 | +$1,376 |
| $172 (+20%) | +$2,289 | +$2,190 | +$2,112 | +$2,093 |
Uses APPF's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.