Target Price Playground
APPF
$143.34
๐ข
APPF IV: 50.3% โ LOW
(-29.6% vs 30d avg of 71.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $145 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.07 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $145 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.53 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPF hits $165 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-460 (-18.7%) on $2,460 risked, vs +$2,166 (15.1%) for 100 shares on $14,334. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APPF is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APPF hits $165 by Jun 19
$-460
-18.7% on $2,460 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,460
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$120.40
-16.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
7.37 / -18.11 / 48.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPF Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | +$868 | +$699 | +$574 | +$573 |
| $122 (-15%) | +$455 | +$198 | -$51 | -$144 |
| $129 (-10%) | +$167 | -$172 | -$559 | -$861 |
| $136 (-5%) | +$15 | -$388 | -$892 | -$1,577 |
| $140 (-2%) | -$10 | -$438 | -$990 | -$2,007 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$439 | -$1,010 | -$2,294 |
| $146 (+2%) | +$32 | -$414 | -$993 | -$2,339 |
| $151 (+5%) | +$117 | -$329 | -$903 | -$1,909 |
| $158 (+10%) | +$354 | -$74 | -$597 | -$1,193 |
| $165 (+15%) โ target | +$705 | +$315 | -$123 | -$460 |
| $172 (+20%) | +$1,126 | +$783 | +$435 | +$241 |
Uses APPF's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.