Target Price Playground
APPN
$20.22
๐ข
APPN IV: 59.5% โ LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $23 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $20 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.37 ยท ฮ 0.58
SHORT CALL ยท $22 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.57 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPN hits $23 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$120 (149.4%) on $80 risked, vs +$228 (11.3%) for 100 shares on $2,022. Options give 13.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APPN is at $23. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APPN hits $23 by Jun 19
+$120
+149.4% on $80 risked
Max Profit
+$120
If the stock โฅ $22 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$80
Net debit
Break-even
$20.80
+2.88% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
13.85 / -0.01 / -0.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | -$51 | -$59 | -$70 | -$80 |
| $17 (-15%) | -$40 | -$47 | -$60 | -$80 |
| $18 (-10%) | -$27 | -$33 | -$45 | -$80 |
| $19 (-5%) | -$14 | -$17 | -$26 | -$80 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$5 | -$7 | -$12 | -$80 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$0 | -$3 | -$58 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$6 | +$6 | +$6 | -$18 |
| $21 (+5%) | +$14 | +$17 | +$20 | +$43 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$27 | +$33 | +$43 | +$120 |
| $23 (+11%) โ target | +$31 | +$37 | +$48 | +$120 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$40 | +$48 | +$63 | +$120 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$52 | +$61 | +$79 | +$120 |
Uses APPN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.