Target Price Playground
APPN
$20.22
๐ข
APPN IV: 59.5% โ LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $18 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $20 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.99 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $19 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.29 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPN hits $18 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$80 (114.4%) on $70 risked, vs $-222 (-11.0%) for 100 shares on $2,022. Options give 10.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APPN is at $18. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APPN hits $18 by Jun 19
+$80
+114.4% on $70 risked
Max Profit
+$80
If the stock โค $18 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$70
Net debit
Break-even
$19.30
-4.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.68 / -0.12 / 0.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | +$45 | +$50 | +$60 | +$80 |
| $17 (-15%) | +$34 | +$38 | +$46 | +$80 |
| $18 (-11%) โ target | +$25 | +$27 | +$32 | +$80 |
| $19 (-5%) | +$11 | +$10 | +$9 | +$9 |
| $20 (-2%) | +$4 | +$2 | -$2 | -$52 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$3 | -$10 | -$70 |
| $21 (+2%) | -$4 | -$8 | -$17 | -$70 |
| $21 (+5%) | -$10 | -$16 | -$26 | -$70 |
| $22 (+10%) | -$20 | -$27 | -$40 | -$70 |
| $23 (+15%) | -$28 | -$36 | -$50 | -$70 |
| $24 (+20%) | -$36 | -$44 | -$57 | -$70 |
Uses APPN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.