Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPN hits $21 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$129 (7.5%) on $-129 credit (max loss $1,721), vs +$78 (3.9%) for 100 shares on $2,022. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APPN is at $21. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | -$186 | -$160 | -$130 | -$103 |
| $17 (-15%) | -$127 | -$97 | -$58 | -$2 |
| $18 (-10%) | -$77 | -$44 | -$1 | +$99 |
| $19 (-5%) | -$35 | -$1 | +$43 | +$129 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$13 | +$21 | +$64 | +$129 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$33 | +$75 | +$129 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$12 | +$44 | +$84 | +$129 |
| $21 (+4%) โ target | +$23 | +$54 | +$92 | +$129 |
| $21 (+5%) | +$28 | +$59 | +$96 | +$129 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$51 | +$79 | +$110 | +$129 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$69 | +$94 | +$118 | +$129 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$83 | +$104 | +$123 | +$129 |