Target Price Playground
APPN
$20.22
๐ข
APPN IV: 59.5% โ LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $22 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $20.22 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $22 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.57 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPN hits $22 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$335 (18.0%) on $1,865 risked, vs +$178 (8.8%) for 100 shares on $2,022. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APPN is at $22. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APPN hits $22 by Jun 19
+$335
+18.0% on $1,865 risked
Max Profit
+$335
If the stock โฅ $22 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,865
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$18.65
-7.77% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.65 / 1.72 / -3.42
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | -$282 | -$264 | -$250 | -$247 |
| $17 (-15%) | -$201 | -$177 | -$155 | -$146 |
| $18 (-10%) | -$127 | -$96 | -$64 | -$45 |
| $19 (-5%) | -$60 | -$24 | +$19 | +$56 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$23 | +$16 | +$64 | +$117 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$41 | +$91 | +$157 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$22 | +$64 | +$117 | +$197 |
| $21 (+5%) | +$53 | +$97 | +$153 | +$258 |
| $22 (+9%) โ target | +$88 | +$133 | +$192 | +$335 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$98 | +$144 | +$203 | +$335 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$137 | +$183 | +$241 | +$335 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$170 | +$215 | +$270 | +$335 |
Uses APPN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.