Target Price Playground
APPN
$20.22
๐ข
APPN IV: 59.5% โ LOW
(-22.8% vs 30d avg of 77.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $23 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $20.22 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APPN hits $23 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$228 (11.3%) on $2,022 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APPN hits $23 by Jun 19
+$228
+11.3% on $2,022 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,022
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$20.22
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APPN Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $16 (-20%) | -$404 | -$404 | -$404 |
| $17 (-15%) | -$303 | -$303 | -$303 |
| $18 (-10%) | -$202 | -$202 | -$202 |
| $19 (-5%) | -$101 | -$101 | -$101 |
| $20 (-2%) | -$40 | -$40 | -$40 |
| $20 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $21 (+2%) | +$40 | +$40 | +$40 |
| $21 (+5%) | +$101 | +$101 | +$101 |
| $22 (+10%) | +$202 | +$202 | +$202 |
| $23 (+11%) โ target | +$228 | +$228 | +$228 |
| $23 (+15%) | +$303 | +$303 | +$303 |
| $24 (+20%) | +$404 | +$404 | +$404 |
Uses APPN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.